More stunning predictions for 2025
By Gordon Hecht, YSN Contributor
Last week, through a combination of tea leaves, crystal ball gazing and the shuffling of Monopoly “Chance” cards, I presented amazing retail predictions for the first six months of 2025.
Now that you’re sufficiently agog (agog?), I bring you my industry forecast for the back-half of the new year. Be sure to save this article and check back for accuracy after the 2026 New Year’s ball drops.
July
It’s the month for fireworks and food fests. But it won’t be a picnic when one of those mega stores decides to call it quits. The Big Box Boys will call in the going-out-of-business teams to paper the wall with attractive yellow and black signs shouting “Everything Must Go! Save 80% to 125%.” At the same time, they will inflate the prices that will deflate your shopper traffic.
Prediction: It’s a fairly sure bet that one or more big furniture and/or appliance chains will shutter in 2025. The hometown shops that make communicating with their loyal fans an integral part of their business will beat the big boys. Quick delivery turnaround, free or low-cost services, realistic hot offers and low-pressure sales assistance will win the day.
August
Class is back in session. College semesters seem to start earlier each year. Incoming students present a golden opportunity to ring the register with extra sales. In-demand merchandise includes mattresses and other bedding, microwave ovens, mini-fridges and TVs. These are all available to you.
Planning needs to start in June and promoting in July. Advertising means going to the audience; for students it’s TikTok and Twitter/X. For adults it’s Facebook and YouTube pre-roll.
Prediction #1: Several university towns will have a retailer that makes the grade. More than giving it the old college try, it will be a Magna Sum Laude blitz. Look for the e-tail sites calling themselves “Official Mattress Provider of Sagebrush State” or “Preferred Appliance Store of Tumbleweed Tech.” They’ll offer hot promos and packages on social media, then old-school it with a truckful of goodies parked close to campus for cash-and-carry sales.
Prediction #2: Dealers looking for back-to-school triumphs will make a point of attending the March Summit.
September
It’s a month that starts with Labor Day and football season and ends with the World Series. Since I picked the Chicago White Sox to win it all last year, I’ll skip that prediction.
Autumn means activities move indoors. Recliners are always in demand. Tack on family room furniture, TVs and other home entertainment. Finish with the latest kitchen gadget and you’ve got a full slate of in-demand items.
Prediction: Your phone and chat line will be buzzing with inquiries. “How much is your cheapest recliner?” is what they’ll want to know. In the words of the famous philosopher Chubby Checker, how low can you go?
Shops that promote “Free Recliners!” will have larger crowds than a Big Ten tailgate party. With the cost of those chairs under $200 it’s a great giveaway with premium mattresses, kitchen appliance bundles and high-tech entertainment. Upgrade the lounger from starter to star to collect even more revenue.
October
There’s a chill in the air, but your sales don’t need to cool off. A safe prediction might be that Black Friday starts October 2. We will pass on that one for now.
This month is like a middle child. Summer promos are over and it’s not quite the holiday season — unless you make it so. In a few weeks folks will gather to give thanks. Host families will want the homestead to look spiffy. And I’ll wager that Thanksgiving dinner in 2025 will cost more than last year.
Prediction: The goal of Thanksgiving is to stuff the turkey and then stuff yourself. Dining means dining room furniture sales. Dinettes or formal, barstools, game tables and more. Ranges, ovens, and microwaves for cooking. It’s a major investment. Key promotions will circle around Fill Your Fridge promos. $100-500 grocery gift cards with escalating purchases. Buy now and we’ll feed your family. Or add on the dessert with a FREE set of cookware or dishes with purchase. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
November
What more can you ask for? Pre-Christmas and Black Friday. Retail therapy is underway! Your shoppers plan and budget for this all year.
Gift buying is in full swing. But understand this: Shoppers may not know what to get Aunt Jenny or Cousin Phil. Help them understand that everything is a present. There’s no better gift than good sleep. Pillows, sheet sets and blankets. Small appliances and electronics rule.
Prediction: Holiday shopping is stressful. The greatest retail activity will center around shopkeepers who cheerfully extend their return policies through mid-February. Having prewrapped gifts reduces anxiety and may cause revenue.
December
Wow, this year went by fast. Every warm body that crosses your store is there to buy. Don’t let them leave without asking for the sale.
December has 31 days, and the first 20 are the most important for big ticket retail. You’ll lose a couple of business days to Christmas and Christmas Eve, along with New Years Eve. The last few days of the year are the perfect time to plan 2026.
Prediction: Perceptive store owners and retail gurus will review their wins and losses and plan to do less dumb things in 2026. They will understand the contributions of their employees and reward them generously when due. Next year they will attract more shoppers and staff from organizations that miss this cue.
Gordon Hecht is a consultant to the home furnishings trade with over four decades in retail and manufacturing and more than 500 industry newsletters and articles under his belt. His award-winning experience includes tenured time with Ashley Furniture Industries and Serta Simmons Bedding, with progressive responsibility for large and small retailers. Contact him at gordon.hecht@aol.com.
