Stunning predictions for 2025, Part I
By Gordon Hecht, YSN Contributor
If the game of business were an NFL football game, the zebras would be signaling the two-minute warning. It’s time to wrap up 2024.
I hope this year was a winner for you. But win or lose, next year is almost upon us. And just like every year, it will be full of surprises and opportunities.
Through a combination of tea leaves, crystal ball gazing and shuffling “Chance” cards from a Monopoly deck come the following predictions. Be sure to save this article and check it after the 2026 New Year’s ball drops.
January
The retail world will revolve with Las Vegas at the center. The year kicks off early with the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) and the International Furniture Market. New products, designs and styles will outshine the glitz of Glitter Gulch. The technology will blow your mind.
Prediction: New concepts will be in abundance. Many will never make it to market. But there will be a few gems that will make your store the place to shop in your town. Keep an open mind! For every doomed RCA VideoDisc player there is a future hot-selling smart fridge or natural mattress.
February
If Thanksgiving is the family holiday and Halloween is the kids’ holiday, then February has a holiday period that every adult loves. No, it’s not Valentine’s Day or President’s Day. It’s Tax Refund Season.
For many working people 2024 was an off year: highs and lows in employment, a small rise in real wages and a big push for 401(k)s and other retirement accounts.
Prediction: Your shoppers will receive their largest tax refunds in the last five years. They will file their 1040 forms early in the month and have their dough in the bank within 10 days. Consumer demand will be high with a heavy desire for immediate gratification. Stock up early for many happy returns.
March
It’s always a gamble for March Madness. Watching those lanky dudes try to stuff a ball through a hoop can be fun. But the real speculation is the weather this month. There’s always a chance for a Snowmageddon and ice storms in the North, heavy rain in the South or abundant sunshine in the Midwest. Any of these three can affect your foot traffic, operations and incoming freight.
Prediction #1: The winning retailers this month will be those who have planned for the weather. They’ll have adequate inventory and staff, a game plan to improve communications and another to reduce disruptions.
Prediction #2: When you go to the BrandSource Summit in Nashville this month, you’ll rub elbows with some of the smartest people in the business!
April
Winter is over. Attention turns to spring and summer. April contains neither Mother’s nor Father’s Day, graduation or wedding days, nor Memorial or Independence Day. Marketing planning starts April 1. No fooling!
Successful promotions come not from planning a sale. These days retailers have to plan events. And advertising for sure. You’ll need to add in hot-buy merchandise, store displays and point-of-purchase material. Then sales training to the promotion — the upgrades and down-sells. Toss in financing, community involvement and special hours. It’s like planning a wedding, prom, Bar Mitzvah and anniversary celebration all rolled into one.
Prediction: Some retailers will see a long line of cars. It will be shoppers driving by their stores and heading to the dealers that planned and executed amazing promotional events.
May
The month starts out with the aforementioned Mother’s Day and ends with Memorial Day. Both dates combine for massive retail activity.
In 2024 Americans spent $37.5 billon for Mother’s Day. Most was on cards, flowers and dining out. The average expenditure hovered around $220, meaning some people spent under $50 and others over $500.
Memorial Day is the unofficial kickoff of summer. Over half of us are grilling on the patio that day. Others are traveling. Almost all are looking for holiday bargains on everything including outdoor furniture and grills.
Prediction: The retailers who capitalize on May’s holidays will enjoy a sales tsunami that will carry them through a June swoon.
June
Graduations commenced in late May and continue through this month. High school seniors are flipping the tassels on their mortarboards and wondering what happens next. Don’t believe what you read about Gen Z; this generation is full of kind, helpful and gentle people. Chances are good their IT skills exceed yours! They don’t want to flip burgers, and college is too darned expensive.
Prediction: At least one wise retailer will give a kid a chance and hire a recent graduate. Although that fledgling may have no working skills, she or he may have the drive to succeed. The retailer will invest in training and offer encouragement. The result will be a successful, long-time employee.
Next week: What the back half will bring.
Gordon Hecht is a consultant to the home furnishings trade with over four decades in retail and manufacturing and more than 500 industry newsletters and articles under his belt. His award-winning experience includes tenured time with Ashley Furniture Industries and Serta Simmons Bedding, with progressive responsibility for large and small retailers. Contact him at gordon.hecht@aol.com.
